Will the weather be warmer in Tasmania in 20 years?

Yes. In fact, since records began about 100 years ago, the average Australian temperature has warmed but about 1.4°C. By 2050, Tasmania is projected to experience an increase in temperature of at least 1.5°C. We say at least because the real amount depends on what happens to CO2 emissions between now and then. By 2100, Tasmania is projected to experience an increase of 1.5°C to 3°C in temperature across all locations, and more than 4°C in mountain regions.

But this is the average across the year. There will also be changes in temperature extremes, like heat waves. For example, for 1961-1990, Launceston had an average of 29 days per year over 25°C. For 2070-2099, we predict that Launceston will average 75 days per year over 25°C.

We asked a wetland ecologist, a fire scientist, and a Tasmanian Aboriginal person to answer this question. Their answers may surprise you - because climate change is already affecting Tasmania.

Indigenous perspective

Tasmanian Aboriginal People have been seeing climate change effects for well over 15 years now, we have noticed these effects on our traditional cultural resources such as the marineer shells, Mutton Birds, and dog wood trees/saplings. 

Marineer Shells are used in traditional shell necklace making (mental health, connection to country). The shells come in a variety of colours and sizes. They are an iridescent metallic green or blue colour and are often representative of status or valued highly as a trade item, depending on the quality, quantity, and shell variety. 

Some of the climate change affects which has been seen on the shells are discoloration, spotted corrosion, thinning of the shell walls, and becoming more brittle because of this. Their numbers are reducing, the water they live in has become more acidic, the weeds they live in and on have reduced in number and coverage per hectare, in some cases being pushed out of the area by other weeds. 

Mutton birds are being affected by micro plastics in the water, and the blockages are interfering with their energy levels for their long-haul migrations and breeding cycles. Dog wood (used for making spears and clap sticks) saplings are growing at a faster rate and are being shown to not grow as straight nor with the same internal strength qualities that have been apparent for thousands of years.