What don't scientists know about climate change?

While scientists in Australia and elsewhere have collected lots of data and completed many experiments about a warming world, there are still aspects that remain uncertain or require further research.

For example, the long-term (say more than 100 years) consequences of climate change on species and habitats and people are still not fully known. How much damage to coral reefs can occur before the fish also disappear? Can there be sudden and irreversible changes, such as loss of species? How will human food production be affected? Will new diseases appear in places that have not had that disease before? For example, could malaria become more common in Australia?

Some of these changes are hard to understand because there are feedbacks between the atmosphere, ocean and land. How might melting of sea ice around Antarctica (ice reflects sunlight) result in even more warming (water can absorb more heat than ice)?

While there is a good understanding of global climate trends, predicting the specific regional and local impacts of climate change, including changes in precipitation patterns, extreme weather events, and sea-level rise, is challenging and uncertain. We know that the ocean will get warmer, but the speed of warming will be different on the east coast of Tasmania (fast) to the west coast (slower). What does this mean for species that might swim between the east and west coasts?

Understanding climate change gets even harder when we have to think about what humans might do. How individuals and societies will respond to the challenges posed by climate change is not fully predictable. How fast can technological innovation, such as solar power, wind farms, and electric vehicles help to reduce emissions. Can people in Hobart learn to adapt to days with temperatures over 40 C?

Scientists continue to work on these and many other aspects of climate change. We really want to address this global challenge and make the planet safer for everyone.