
Dr Kim Beasy
Questions answered by this expert
Tasmania does face a high risk of tsunamis, though these are caused by underwater earthquakes rather than climate change directly. However, rising sea levels caused by climate change do make tsunamis and coastal floods more dangerous because the water starts from a higher level and can reach further inland. Scientists say that what used to be a really big flood that only happened once every 100 years could start happening almost every single year in Tasmania by the end of this century, especially during high tides.
Climate change will also bring other natural hazards to Tasmania more often. Bushfires are expected to become much more dangerous, with fire risk increasing up to 8 times by the end of the century. Heatwaves will become longer and more intense, and storms bringing very heavy rainfall are also expected to increase. The good news is that scientists are already tracking and mapping these risks very carefully, and Tasmania is actually considered one of the safer places in the world because it can grow its own food and generate its own electricity. The Tasmania State Emergency Service website have some great information about how to stay safe if a tsunami warning is ever issued and the State Government Planning Office also have information about protections against other natural hazards.
Sea levels around Tasmania are expected to rise by around 23 cm by 2050 and up to 85 cm by 2100. That is less than a metre, but it is enough to cause some big problems. Low-lying coastal areas, beaches, wetlands, and parts of estuaries (where rivers meet the sea) could regularly flood. Some islands like Flinders Island and King Island have large areas of low, flat land that could get partly covered by water, especially during storms. Scientists have mapped these risks and found that over 20,000 hectares of Tasmanian coastal land could be affected.

The flooding would not happen all at once like a wave from a movie. It would be more like storms and high tides reaching further and further inland over time. Imagine the biggest storm flood you have ever seen, happening much more often, and reaching places that used to stay dry. Some beaches and coastal towns could regularly go underwater during storms. The good news is that scientists are already making detailed maps to help communities plan ahead and stay safe. You can even explore some of these risks yourself using a free online tool called Canute, made by the CSIRO.
Evidence confirms that rising temperatures and skin cancer are linked. When it gets hotter, people naturally spend more time outside wearing less clothing, which means more skin is exposed to the sun's harmful ultraviolet (UV) rays. Researchers have also discovered that heat makes UV radiation more damaging at a biological level. Heat stress stops damaged skin cells from self-destructing as they normally would, allowing harmful cells to survive and potentially turn cancerous. Research shows that skin cancer cases in the US more than tripled between 1975 and 2021, and in Canada, the deadliest form of skin cancer (melanoma) increased by 17% in 2024.
Although it is not directly linked to climate change, the ozone layer plays a critical role in this picture too, because it functions as the Earth's natural ‘sunscreen’. Tasmania sits directly under one of the most ozone-depleted parts of the atmosphere, meaning Tasmanians already receive some of the highest UV radiation levels in the world. Australia as a whole has the highest skin cancer rates on the planet, affecting around 50% of Australians in their lifetime. Tasmania's proximity to the Antarctic ozone hole mean we are particularly exposed. While the Montreal Protocol has slowed ozone damage significantly, scientists estimate full recovery will not occur until around 2060, meaning this elevated UV risk will persist for decades.

The good news is that skin cancer is one of the most preventable cancers, and we know what the protective measures are. Wearing sunscreen daily, covering up with protective clothing, and avoiding peak sun hours between 10am and 4pm all make a meaningful difference. For Tasmanians, the particular risk lies in being caught off guard on cool or cloudy days, where UV radiation can remain dangerously high despite the temperature feeling mild. Consistent sun protection, regardless of how the weather feels, remains the most effective defence.
Carbon in the atmosphere is a natural part of the carbon cycle. The problem though, is that through human activities, we are putting too much carbon in the atmosphere. There are many natural ways that carbon is captured from the air. Plants on land and in the ocean, all photosynthesise which takes carbon from the atmosphere. These are what we could call the ultimate and natural carbon catchers.
Scientists are working hard to develop effective approaches to capture the carbon that is produced from industrial processes such as power plants, and other carbon emitting activities like deforestation and agriculture. The challenge though is knowing what to do with it once it is captured. Storage solutions are needed but generally these are very expensive, and we don’t really know all of the environmental risks associated with them. For example, some ideas are to trap the carbon dioxide deep into the ocean, or to store it underground in rocks or in minerals. Each has a number of known and unknown risks which need to be carefully addressed before anything is pursued on a large scale.
Resource: https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-solutions/can-we-pull-carbon-dioxide-out-atmosphere








